A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
